Explore new horizons of a living faith
These pages are designed to aid study or investigation for Christian discipleship through individual Bible study, Cell groups, Home groups, or meeting one to one. The questions could be used alone allowing each person to use their own Bible.
If anyone is in Christ, he is a new creation. 2 Cor 5:17
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Go to the new more user friendly version - beingrecreated.org
Introduction
William Thomson, Lord Kelvin said, “When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts advanced to the stage of science.”
The theory of evolution is a magnificent edifice with evidence of its impact on life arising in many areas. When it comes to be used as a theory for life beginning however it fails miserably. Its failure lies in the probability of life beginning through a chance coming together of chemicals to form a protein that would self reproduce. Only with such a protein could life be thought to exist in even the most basic form. Lord Kelvin’s test of whether a theory is science demanding the expression in numbers leaves the explanations for the creation of life through evolution as a meagre and unsatisfactory theory.
The probability of life beginning through combining random chemical building blocks, amino acids, is less than the probability of picking out one black grain of sand from a pile of white sand big enough to fill all the stars in the universe, with one pick. About 1 in 1.4 * 10 60
This probability is so low as to be beyond reason. The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin of life is a huge edifice built on quick sand.
This is not philosophy. Here are the numbers -
The first part is the probability of life forming.
- The probability of a string of amino acids forming life.
- The number of amino acids combining.
- The number of combinations made till now.
- Probability of life forming till now.
The second part is to compare the result with grains of sand to fill the starts of the universe.
- Grains of sand to fill all the stars of the universe.
- Conclusion - a similar number.
The probability of a string of amino acids forming life.
The assumptions -
- A string of 140 amino acids that would self reproduce. (Such a chemical has never been discovered, but I am trying to work in evolution’s favour.)
- The big assumption - a protein of at least 140 amino acids to be able to self recreate, and hence create life. Most would now say a full cell was needed - far more amino acids being needed.
- Order of amino acids in the protein is significant.
- Assume the protein is created from a pool of 20 amino acid types evenly distributed.
- 20-22 amino acids in the human body. Many more beyond, keep the number to lowest it helps the evolution argument. So, assume 20.
- 1037 possible strings of 140 amino acids that could self reproduce, (Number a guess, but makes the calculations easier later.)
The target probability for the creation of a string of basic amino acids capable of reproduction.
Number of possible sequences of 140 amino acid protein made up from a pool of 20 amino acid types
20 to the power 140 = 8 * 10187
Probability of acceptable combination forming = Number of allowable strings divided by the possible number of sequences -
Probability of a ‘life starting protein’ arising in a pool of amino acids is
1037 / 8*10187 = 1.25 * 10-150
The Number of Amino Acids Combining.
How many amino acids can be brought together in a pool for them to be able to combine to form this ‘life starting protein.’
The assumptions -
- An earth type planet around a sun type star for every star in universe.
- Number of stars in the universe approximately 10 24 - Source ESA http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEM75BS1VED_index_0.html
- Every molecule of water in the oceans of each planet replaced by an amino acid. (This is ridiculous, but I am trying to work in evolution’s favour.)
- Water on earth 1.26 * 1021 litres.
- Molecules of water per litre -
- 1 litre of water has mass about 1000 grams/litre.
Molecular mass of water=18
so No. of moles in litre = 1000/18= 55.55 moles/lt
this multiplied by Avogadro's number: 6.022*1023
will give number of water molecules in 1 litre as:
55.55*6.022*1023 ~= 334.52*1023
The number of amino acids in this hypothetical universe -
Number of amino acids in our imaginary universe. Stars * litres in ocean * molecules in litre
1024 * 1,2 * 1021 * 334 * 1023 = 400 * 1068 or 4 * 1071
Number of amino acids in pool to form the ‘life starting protein = 4 * 1071
The number of combinations till now
The amino acids in this pool have from the start of the universe till now to create life.
The assumptions -
- Time permitted 15 billion years since the Big Bang.
- Age of the Universe 15 Billion years old. Wickipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_universe
- 31 million seconds per year
- 1000 combinations made / second - unrealistically high to be on the safe side.
Number of attempts = 15 * 109 yrs * 31 * 106 *103 secs = 4.65 * 1020 attempts
Number of attempts made by each amino acid 4.65 * 1020 attempts
Number of combinations = Number of attempts * Number of amino acids / 140 (string)
4.65 * 1020 attempts * 4*1071 amino acids / 140 amino acids/string = 1.32 * 1090
Number of proteins created in the time available = 1.32 * 1090
The Probability of life forming till now
Probability of life till now = probability of life in one combination * total combinations.
Probability of life = 1.25 * 10-150 * 1.32*1090 = 1.65 * 10-60
Chance of ‘life initiating protein’ forming since start of the universe = 1.65 * 10-60
Grains of sand to fill all the stars of the universe
Assumptions
- Size of grain of sand - 1 mm cube.
- Grains of sand in Metre cubed 10 3 cubed = 10 9
- Volume of sun 1.4 * 1027 Meters cubed.
- Grains of sand in sun 1.4 * 1027 * 10 9 = 1.4 * 10 36
- Grains of sand in universe 1.4 * 1036 * 10 24 stars = 1.4 * 10 60
Number of grains of white sand filling all stars in universe = 1.4 * 10 60
Probability of life forming till now in extremely idealised conditions is approximately the same as the probability of .taking one black grain of sand out of universe of stars filled with white sand 1 in 1.4 * 10 60
PROBABILITY LIFE BEGINNING
